{"id":10083,"date":"2024-08-06T18:14:59","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T18:14:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nodumcorporate.com\/des-marches-convulsifs\/"},"modified":"2024-08-06T18:24:36","modified_gmt":"2024-08-06T18:24:36","slug":"des-marches-convulsifs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nodumcorporate.com\/fr\/des-marches-convulsifs\/","title":{"rendered":"DES MARCHES CONVULSIFS"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Vers la fin de la semaine derni\u00e8re, la situation du march\u00e9 a chang\u00e9 radicalement et de fortes corrections ont commenc\u00e9, men\u00e9es par les grandes entreprises technologiques am\u00e9ricaines. Cette derni\u00e8re a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9clench\u00e9e par la publication des donn\u00e9es relatives \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d&#8217;emplois pour le mois de juillet aux \u00c9tats-Unis, qui se sont \u00e9lev\u00e9es \u00e0 114.000. Ces donn\u00e9es ont \u00e9t\u00e9 l&rsquo;\u00e9l\u00e9ment d\u00e9clencheur qui a permis aux march\u00e9s de commencer \u00e0 parler d&rsquo;une possible <strong>RECESSION.<\/strong>  <\/p>\n\n<p>Un autre \u00e9v\u00e9nement important qui a aliment\u00e9 les fortes corrections a sans aucun doute \u00e9t\u00e9 les hausses de taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat au Japon (et en particulier la derni\u00e8re) dans le but d&rsquo;appr\u00e9cier sa monnaie. Mais cela a eu un effet tr\u00e8s n\u00e9gatif sur le fameux <em><strong>carry trade<\/strong><\/em>, que de nombreux investisseurs ont utilis\u00e9 pour se financer avec des pr\u00eats en yens et acheter simultan\u00e9ment des actions am\u00e9ricaines, mais aussi japonaises. La f\u00eate du <em><strong>yen trade <\/strong><\/em>est termin\u00e9e et les <em>margin calls<\/em> (vente d&rsquo;actifs pour couvrir les pertes et les pr\u00eats) ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 refaire surface, ce qui a g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 de fortes ventes sur les march\u00e9s boursiers du monde entier, comme ce fut le cas pour le Nikkei -12% hier.  <\/p>\n\n<p>Aujourd&rsquo;hui, mardi 6 ao\u00fbt, il semble que les march\u00e9s veuillent r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer la forte chute du lundi noir que nous avons eu hier. L&rsquo;indice Nikkei r\u00e9cup\u00e8re pratiquement ce qu&rsquo;il a perdu hier : +10%. <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Banques centrales<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p>En ce moment, le march\u00e9 obligataire anticipe une probabilit\u00e9 de 60 % que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine Cependant, le sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9ren<em> convoque une <strong>r\u00e9union d&rsquo;urgence pour baisser les taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat<\/strong>.<\/em>ce pr\u00e9voit que la Fed r\u00e9duira les taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat lors de ses trois prochaines r\u00e9unions, un calendrier de r\u00e9ductions de taux plus agressif que pr\u00e9vu.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Que faire maintenant?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p>En ces temps de <strong>forte volatilit\u00e9 des march\u00e9s<\/strong>, il est crucial de<strong> rester calme et de bien positionner nos portefeuilles<\/strong>. En effet, si les banques centrales interviennent, un fort rebond des march\u00e9s boursiers pourrait se produire. Bien que cela ne soit pas notre sc\u00e9nario principal, nous n\u2019excluons pas cette possibilit\u00e9. Par ailleurs, nous pensons que la fameuse r\u00e9cession, que les march\u00e9s ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00e9carter au fur et \u00e0 mesure de son d\u00e9roulement, pourrait \u00e0 nouveau s&rsquo;estomper. <\/p>\n\n<p>Cette semaine, nous surveillerons attentivement les donn\u00e9es macro\u00e9conomiques am\u00e9ricaines : des donn\u00e9es solides pourraient dissiper les craintes de r\u00e9cession, tandis que des donn\u00e9es faibles pourraient les raviver. Nous suivrons \u00e9galement de pr\u00e8s les d\u00e9veloppements g\u00e9opolitiques apr\u00e8s l&rsquo;assassinat du chef du Hamas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>carry trade<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":10081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[74],"class_list":["post-10083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-invest-andorra-fr","tag-kudo-invest"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>&quot;La situation agit\u00e9e des march\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques&quot;<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dans cet article, nous examinons comment le march\u00e9 \u00e9conomique actuel a conduit \u00e0 un r\u00e9ajustement des strat\u00e9gies de &#039;carry trade&#039;, ainsi que la 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